These guys dig Russia. Or so it seems at the first glance.
The Financial Crisis and the Six Pillars of Russian Strength.
I've always been a bit skeptical about all those "objective" circumstances which supposedly define political, economical and cultural life of a country. Otherwise, the analysis is interesting.
While Russia’s financial sector may be getting torn apart, the state does not really count on that sector for domestic cohesion or stability, or for projecting power abroad. Russia knows it lacks a good track record financially, so it depends on — and has shored up where it can — six other pillars to maintain its (self-proclaimed) place as a major international player. The current financial crisis would crush the last five pillars for any other state, but in Russia, it has only served to strengthen these bases. Over the past few years, there was a certain window of opportunity for Russia to resurge while Washington was preoccupied with wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. This window has been kept open longer by the West’s lack of worry over the Russian resurgence given the financial crisis. But others closer to the Russian border understand that Moscow has many tools more potent than finance with which to continue reasserting itself.
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The financial crisis is only strengthening Russian domestic and international political strength -- Who would have thunk it?
This article makes some great points, although the guys at Stratfor tend to overemphasize geography, which is certainly important but not quite the be-all, end-all it has been traditionally. On the other hand, they have a healthy respect for history, which is more important in Russia than in almost any other country.
I would point out, though, that they struck out on Medvedev's rise:
http://www.stratfor.com/realism_russia
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